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How to calculate Customer Lifetime Value

The strategic metric of Lifetime Value (LTV) is critical to any business for gauging their long-term profitability. Utilize advanced ML algorithms for precise predictions, factoring in customer lifespan and repeat behavior amid a multitude of factors

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More About the Problem

CLV is vital, predicting a customer's total revenue or profit over their brand journey, offering insights into long-term relationships. However, accurate calculation is challenging, involving factors like purchase history, churn rate, average lifespan, and future growth.

 

Additionally, businesses may have varied CLV goals, some using it to gauge future revenue while others identify high-value segments, or assess acquisition and retention effectiveness. Tailoring CLV calculations to specific objectives is essential for meaningful insights into customer value.

The Approach

Making it Happen

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Mathematically, CLV = (Churn Probability) * (Expected Number of Transactions) * (Avg Value of Each Transaction) * (Profit Margin)
 

Calculating CLTV involves leveraging advanced machine learning & statistical techniques to precisely estimate each component for each customer.

Implementation involves integrating CLV insights into strategic decision-making processes. It can help in optimizing marketing budgets, refine customer acquisition strategies, and prioritize high-value customer segments.

Another critical aspect for brands is regularly updating CLV calculations, providing them a dynamic understanding of shifts in customer behaviors and market conditions. This iterative approach empowers businesses to intervene proactively and adapt strategies for sustained growth and profitability.

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Designed a 12-month CLV prediction model for a ecommerce marketplace:

  • Integrated insights from the CLV analysis with an established short-term Churn Framework to create strategic goals for each cohort

  • Launched a loyalty program for the top 10 percentile customers (also named ‘Power Users’) with early access to collections, free delivery & other benefits


Over a span of two years, this dynamic framework has propelled a ~4% enhancement in the 12-month CLV of their customers.

Evernile Delta, Data Sciences & Analytics, Customer Value Chain

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